Author: Trang Nguyen

Forecasting dengue in a changing climate

Every year, Vietnam braces for dengue season. Up to 200,000 cases are reported annually, and the conditions that shape those outbreaks are becoming harder to read.

Rising temperatures and shifting rainfall are pushing Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue, into northern and mountainous regions. Changes in the climate, rapid urbanisation, population growth, and complex human movement are making dengue increasingly difficult to anticipate through conventional surveillance alone.

Dengue Advanced Readiness Tools (DART) was designed to help address this challenge. Supported by Wellcome, the platform brings together case notifications, climate, and population data to forecast dengue weekly incidence at district level 1 to 12 weeks in advance, giving public health teams more time to prepare, allocate resources and respond before an outbreak takes hold.

The scope and outputs of DART were shaped through direct consultation with local partners, making it highly customised to Vietnam’s needs and realities.

A new way to forecast

Building an effective dengue forecast is harder than it sounds. Many forecasting tools have traditionally relied on statistical models because they can show a range of possible outcomes, helping decision makers better understand uncertainty.

But they require researchers to decide up front which factors should shape those predictions and the uncertainties, such as temperature, rainfall, or population density. Miss something important, and the forecast can become inaccurate.

Machine learning models work differently. Rather than being told which factors matter, it analyses large amounts of data and identifies patterns for itself. The catch is that most machine learning models produce only a single predicted case count, with no range and no indication of how confident it is. For a public health manager deciding whether to act, that missing context matters.

‘It used to be an either-or dilemma, so DART was designed to bring these strengths together,’ said Huỳnh Ngọc Tuyên, DPhil candidate, University of Oxford, forecast modeller of DART project, OUCRU Vietnam.

DART combines machine learning with an advanced technique that adds a confidence range to each forecast. In practice, rather than relying on human judgements to decide in advance whether humidity, rainfall or other factors matter most, DART identifies those relationships from the data itself. Instead of a single predicted number, users see a range, say 400 to 650 cases, giving them a clearer basis for deciding whether and how to act.

‘It gives us the flexibility of machine learning while still producing outputs that are meaningful for public health decision making,’ Tuyên said. ‘That combination is what sets DART apart.’

The platform brings together three components: a data pipeline, a forecasting model, and a visualisation interface. Disease surveillance records, weather data, and population density estimates feed into the system, where they are processed and aggregated automatically.

Processing data for the whole of Vietnam from 2002 to 2025 takes around eight hours. Once in routine operation, the pipeline can be automated to run weekly with little manual input.

The current system already generates weekly forecasts of dengue incidence for Ho Chi Minh City, up to 12 weeks ahead, at either city or district level. In 2025, district-level administrative was removed in Vietnam, DART aims to adapt the model to commune level to reflect this change.

A forecast is only useful if it is used

Over three years, DART grew in ways that reflected the complexity of the problem itself. The project began with a focused technical team and ended with a wider circle of partners, including local government, public health agencies, and academic institutions, all of whom shaped what the platform became.

‘We have more people involved, which is a good thing,’ said project lead Associate Professor Sarah Sparrow of the University of Oxford. That expansion was not simply a matter of scale.

Bringing in the National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (NIHE), Hanoi Centre for Disease Control (Hanoi CDC), Centre for Disease Control of Ho Chi Minh City (HCDC), Ho Chi Minh City Department of Health (HCMC DoH), the University of Science and Technology of Hanoi (USTH), and other local stakeholders meant the platform was tested against operational realities, not just research assumptions.

The original ambition was to compare dengue dynamics across multiple Vietnamese cities. Over time, the team moved towards a more grounded approach: getting the framework right in Ho Chi Minh City first, validating it, then thinking about where else it might go.

‘It’s not an academic exercise,’ Assoc Prof Sparrow said. ‘We want to develop a tool that public health teams could understand, trust and use.’

By 2026, the question was no longer whether DART could generate reliable forecasts. It was whether the institutions it was built with had enough confidence to act on them.

On 21 and 22 May, the question was brought into the closing workshop. Participants watched data move through the pipeline and reviewed what it had produced. The institutions present, including Wellcome, NIHE, HCDC, Hanoi CDC, Ho Chi Minh City Pasteur Institute, USTH, Save the Children and academic partners from Vietnam and the United Kingdom, reflected the translational ambition of the project.

TrÆ°Æ¡ng Thị Thanh Lan, MSc, Head of the Department of Surveillance, Early Warning, Preparedness and Emergency Response to Epidemics at HCDC, described the platform as ‘an effective tool for supporting dengue forecasting in Ho Chi Minh City’ but noted that recent changes to the city’s administrative structure will require further refinement to ensure it remains relevant and usable in practice.

The meeting also surfaced a challenge the field has been grappling with more broadly. Associate Professor Phạm Quang Thái, Vice Head of Communicable Disease Control at NIHE, observed that initial enthusiasm for modelling tools among public health managers has given way to caution.

‘The models get caught up in numbers, visuals, technique,’ he said. ‘For public health managers, the question is simpler: what does this mean, where should we look, and what should we do next?’

Earning broader confidence, he argued, would require closer involvement of surveillance specialists from the outset, clearer evidence of practical benefit and formal validation by recognised scientific bodies to give tools like DART the legitimacy needed for government adoption.

What comes next

The workshop also turned to the harder question of what happens after the grant ends. Forecasting systems require ongoing technical support, updated data, and most importantly, institutional ownership. The research team plans to continue working closely with key stakeholders, including HCDC and local partners, to integrate DART into routine dengue prevention and control activities.

Findings from Advance Warning and Response Exemplars, another study conducted at OUCRU on barriers and enablers to early warning systems, highlighted that stakeholder engagement must be treated as an ongoing process throughout the entire life cycle of the project.

The conversation also looked further ahead. Interest has been expressed in adapting the platform for Brazil and Nepal, stress-testing the framework in different epidemiological settings, and making it more scalable.

Dr Felipe J. Colón-González of Wellcome framed the ambition plainly: ‘This is not purely philanthropic. It is a strategic investment in creating tools that will guide policy and decision-making on the ground.’

DART’s long-term value may therefore depend less on a single technical breakthrough than on whether Vietnam’s public health institutions can own, test and use the system over time. In dengue control, as in weather forecasting, a prediction matters only if someone is prepared to act on it.

Launched in 2023, CoViNet brings together surveillance programmes and reference laboratories from around the world to support the early detection, monitoring, and risk assessment of SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and emerging coronaviruses with epidemic and pandemic potential.

The network builds on WHO COVID-19 reference laboratory network established at the start of the pandemic, expanding its scope to include a broader range of coronaviruses through a One Health approach that integrates human, animal and environmental health. It currently includes 58 reference laboratories across 35 countries.

In March 2026, the research laboratory of OUCRU and HTD was appointed by WHO as a reference laboratory for coronaviruses. As a member of the network, the team will continue to work closely with WHO and global partners to strengthen surveillance, laboratory capacity and coordinated responses to coronavirus threats. This appointment recognises OUCRU and HTD’s established expertise in infectious diseases and their strong research capacity.

Dr Nguyá»…n Thành DÅ©ng, director of HTD, said: ‘The long-term partnership between HTD and OUCRU, together with our experience in responding to emerging infectious diseases, places us in a strong position to contribute to CoViNet. Through this network, we will further strengthen our laboratory capacity to detect and respond to future coronavirus threats.’

Professor Kevin Baird, interim director of OUCRU, commented: ‘We appreciate and acknowledge the global leadership of the WHO in critical infections surveillance operations, of which CoViNet is a fine example. Together with our colleagues at HTD, we look forward to working with WHO and its many partners in the very important and global task of surveilling natural coronaviruses. The relationship not only serves human global health, it also serves to sustain the very high bar of technical excellence for the useful science emanating from it.’

Professor Lê Văn Tấn, head of the Emerging Infections Research Group at OUCRU and principal investigator of SEACOVARIANTS, added: ‘Through the Wellcome-funded SEACOVARIANTS platform, we have established a regional platform for genomic surveillance and assessment of immune response to a wide range of emerging pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, avian influenza A viruses, mpox and enterovirus A71. Joining CoViNet allows us to build on this work and contribute to strengthened epidemic preparedness and response.’

Dr Sangjun Moon, team coordinator, Health Security and Emergencies, WHO Vietnam asserted: ‘The appointment of OUCRU and HTD as a CoViNet reference laboratory enhances Vietnam’s contribution to global coronavirus surveillance.

‘Together with NIHE and PIHCMC, the three reference laboratories can support national preparedness and regional response, building on OUCRU’s recent contributions to genomic surveillance and variant characterisation. CoViNet enables faster information-sharing and more coordinated public health action.’

Membership of CoViNet will strengthen collaboration across Vietnam and South-East Asia, as well as deepen partnerships with WHO and global research networks. It reflects a shared commitment to coordinated, cross-border public health action.

OUCRU and HTD look forward to contributing to collective efforts to monitor, understand and respond to future public health threats.

Vietnam’s hospitals face some of the highest infectious disease caseloads in Southeast Asia, and strengthening intensive care unit (ICU) capacity is increasingly recognised as a national health priority. This year’s training drew over 140 intensive care doctors and clinical pharmacists from 20 hospitals and medical universities across Hồ Chí Minh City.

The programme covered the breadth of modern ICU practice, from ventilator-associated pneumonia prevention, sepsis phenotypes, haemodynamic monitoring, point-of-care ultrasound, to sedation, organ dysfunction, antimicrobial resistance, and delirium and withdrawal management. Sessions also included interactive case presentations, and a review of key critical care research from past year.

Speakers included experts from Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust and the University of Southampton, alongside clinicians from the Hospital for Tropical Diseases and People’s 115 Hospital in Hồ Chí Minh City.  

The visiting team also visited Gia Định People’s Hospital in Hồ Chí Minh City, and Đồng Tháp General Hospital, marking the first time the collaboration has extended beyond the city. These visits provided direct insight into intensive care practice across both urban and provincial settings, informing a short on-site training in Äá»“ng Tháp tailored to local needs.

Going forward, these insights will help shape future programmes to be more targeted and locally relevant, with the broader aim of strengthening clinical exchange at provincial level.

“Vietnam’s infectious disease burden places enormous pressure on the ICUs. Clinicians here are managing some of the most complex cases in the region, often with limited resources.

“This training is about ensuring they have access to the same expertise as specialists anywhere in the world, while strengthening local networks and partnerships,” said Professor Louise Thwaites, Senior Research Fellow at OUCRU Vietnam.

The annual training is part of a long-standing collaboration between OUCRU and Guy’s and St Thomas’, which has been running since 2014. It is funded by Dragon Capital Group, a long-term supporter of OUCRU’s work to improve healthcare in Vietnam. 

Future plans include additional training programs, research collaborations, and the establishment of formal links between Vietnamese and UK ICU societies. 

In research, attention is often focused on scientists and scientific impact. But behind every grant and every partnership is work that is less visible and just as critical: people managing funding, budgets, contracts and keeping everything on track from the first grant application to the final report.  

In February 2026, 75 of these professionals, including 67 trainees and 8 trainers, gathered in Ho Chi Minh City for something rare: a workshop designed specifically for them.  

“I’ve been doing this work for years,” shared Ms Lê Duyên Ân, Head of Procurement and Logistics at OUCRU, “but I learned a lot on the job. There has been quite little training on how procurement fits into the research cycle, or how people across disciplines can work together more effectively throughout that cycle.”

That’s the reality across much of Southeast Asia. Research and grant management are emerging professions here. Many people juggle these responsibilities alongside other official roles, without formal training or clear career pathways. This is not a lack of capability, but a lack of investment in a profession that is essential to modern research. 

Meanwhile, international funders increasingly expect stronger systems: due diligence, financial management, governance, reporting, and compliance. When local institutions fail to demonstrate these capacities, they struggle to attract funding and lead research projects, even when scientific expertise is clearly there.

Over time, this influences who holds responsibility, who makes decisions and who is seen as ready to lead. 

The Equitable Research Partnership: Initiative in Providing International Research Management Skill Sets in South East Asia programme, or EQUIPSEA, was designed to respond to this reality. It aims to underline research and grant management not just as support staff, but as a core part of research leadership. 

Over 12 months, the organisers consulted with international experts and then ran a regional needs assessment to understand what people actually need. The result was a three-and-a-half-day workshop focused on practical realities of research management: grant and finance management, budgeting, institutional styles and policies, effective communication, contracts, intellectual property, and Good Financial Grant Practice standard (GFGP).

Every session was designed around real challenges participants face daily, with the principle that “Everyone is a teacher – Everyone is a learner.”

“An important and distinctive feature of the workshop is that the agenda and the content is created in response to the needs of the participants, based on the information they provide during registration.

This approach puts the focus on what is most useful for the attendees, to support them in more confidently tackling the challenges they face in their day-to-day professional roles.”

Ms Mary Ryan, International Research Development Manager, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom.

Perhaps the most valuable part wasn’t the formal sessions. It was discovering that others were navigating the same obstacles, that the workarounds you invented weren’t unique, that the expertise in the room was deeper than anyone realised. Participants left with more skills, confidence, and a community of peers they can call on long after the workshop ends.

“Having a history of more than 35 years and thanks to our affiliation with the University of Oxford, OUCRU has a dedicated grant management system and an excellent team. However, such support is missing in most research institutions and universities in Vietnam. This situation is common across Southeast Asia and negatively impacts equitable research partnerships.

Our workshop was an initiative to improve this situation, and it was successful beyond my expectations. I believe a series of workshops providing international research management skills is essential and urgently required to significantly improve the research culture in Southeast Asian countries.”

Assoc Prof Ngô Thị Hoa, Head of Zoonoses Group, OUCRU Vietnam.

By investing in research and grant management capacity, EQUIPSEA contributes to more equitable research partnerships across low- and middle-income countries. When local institutions can manage funding confidently, they are better positioned to lead collaborations, shape research agendas and share ownership more fairly.

Over time, this strengthens not only individual projects, but the wider research ecosystem across Southeast Asia.

About EQUIPSEA

The EQUIPSEA programme was funded by the British Academy and codeveloped by partners affiliated with the University of Oxford (Assoc Prof Ngô Thị Hoa, Ms Genevieve Kiff, Ms Duyen Nguyen, Mr Paul Miki Carvalho, Ms Laura Scifo) and the University of Glasgow (Ms Mary Ryan) in the United Kingdom, Universiti Putra Malaysia (Assoc Prof Mohamad Faizal Bin Ibrahim), and the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit (OUCRU) (Assoc Prof Ngô Thị Hoa, Dr Nguyễn Trung Thành, Mr Nguyễn Xuân Trường) in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. 

The EQUIPSEA workshop generated significant regional interest, attracting 165 applicants from across South and Southeast Asia, including research scientists, support staff, and grant managers. From this competitive pool, 67 participants were selected based on the excellence and relevance of their professional profiles. 

Our selection strategy was intentionally multidimensional to ensure a truly inclusive impact. We balanced geographic representation across the region with a diverse range of host institutions and sectors within grant and finance management. To foster the next generation of leaders, we prioritised a mix of seniority, welcoming junior members alongside seasoned professionals.  

Furthermore, the scope was expanded beyond biomedical research to encompass various scientific disciplines, with gender balance serving as a core consideration throughout. To support this diverse cohort, 30 participants (including 11 from Vietnam and 19 international) were fully funded by the British Academy, with the remainder receiving partial funding. 

The cohort comprises a diverse, multidisciplinary network spanning research institutes, Ministries of Agriculture, universities, and tertiary hospitals. The workshop achieved significant regional reach: nearly half of the participants (43%; 29/67) represented the Southeast Asian and South Asian nations of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and Nepal. The remaining 57% were drawn from diverse geographical areas across Vietnam, ensuring a comprehensive national and international exchange of research management best practices. 

Closing the event, Assoc Prof Ngô Thị Hoa emphasised the collaborative nature of the initiative: “The success of the EQUIPSEA workshop is due to the generous support of the British Academy and OUCRU… together, we are building a stronger research culture in Southeast Asia.”

Her remarks highlighted a key theme of the week: that regional scientific excellence depends as much on administrative stewardship as it does on laboratory skills. 

Testimonials

“The workshop has brought me new knowledge and skills; it was worth every penny I spent.” 

Dr Tống Thị Lan Chi, Tay Nguyen University, Vietnam.

“Duplicate this kind of action to continue knowledge sharing, develop networking and collaboration to address common challenges, and online meetings could work. Many thanks for this valuable initiative.” 

A participant from Cambodia.

“Please make another workshop like this for more research support. This encourages us and values insight and knowledge, and also increases our confidence despite feeling ‘we are just supporting’. Thank you very much for the great workshop! Congratulations.” 

A participant from Indonesia.